AccuWeather has issued an updated forecast for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, and the forecast is better than the "explosive" season predicted in March.
But that doesn't mean Florida or the U.S. won't face any storms, said AccuWeather. The latest prediction is still above the historical average when it comes to the number of tropical cyclones in the season.
"We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season," said Jon Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist. And while the busiest portion of hurricane season generally runs from mid-August through mid-October, tropical threats could extend into November this year, forecasters warned.
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Forecasters reduced the number of named storms predicted for the season after an unusually quiet August. The Labor Day weekend was the first in 27 years without a named storm in the Atlantic basin, AccuWeather said.
Tropical activity has already picked up in September, with the National Hurricane Center tracking three tropical waves in the Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean.
What is AccuWeather's latest forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season?
AccuWeather is now predicting the season will bring:
16-20 named storms
6-10 hurricanes
3-6 major hurricanes
4-6 direct impacts to the United States
A major hurricane is a Category 3 storm or higher, with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 mph.
New AccuWeather forecast still above historical average
An average hurricane season has 14 named storms in the Atlantic basin.
That's still below the new, reduced forecast of 16 to 20 named storms released by AccuWeather.
How does September's hurricane season forecast compare to March prediction?
In March, AccuWeather predicted the season could bring:
20-25 named storms (now reduced to 16-20)
8-12 hurricanes (now reduced to 6-10)
4-7 major hurricanes (now reduced to 3-6)
4-6 direct U.S. impacts (remains the same)
AccuWeather predicted an "explosive" hurricane season that has the potential to break the all-time record of 30 named storms in a season.
“The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is forecast to feature well above the historical average number of tropical storms, hurricanes, major hurricanes, and direct U.S. impacts,” said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Forecaster Alex DaSilva in March.
“All indications are pointing toward a very active and potentially explosive Atlantic hurricane season in 2024.”
Florida, Texas, Carolinas at risk this hurricane season
"We warned that Texas, the Florida Panhandle, South Florida, and the Carolinas faced a higher-than-average risk of direct impacts this season.," AccuWeather said.
"Three of those four areas have already verified this season. Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the Texas coast in July. Hurricane Debby hit the Big Bend region of Florida in August, followed by a second landfall as a tropical storm in South Carolina,” Porter said.
Why did AccuWeather reduce its prediction for the hurricane season?
Dry air and Saharan dust. A delay in the arrival of La Niña. Wind shear.
All three conditions make it difficult for tropical cyclones to develop or strengthen.
"There has been usual and abundant amounts of dry air and Saharan dust in the Atlantic basin throughout August. The progression to a La Niña pattern has been slower than expected, causing more wind shear," DaSilva said.
"We’re also monitoring a large pocket of cold water off the western coast of Africa that is disrupting the tropical wave train.
"Extremely warm waters across much of the Atlantic basin area ideal for tropical development and rapid intensification, but the surge of dry air, dust, wind shear, and cold waters off the coast of Africa have prevented most tropical waves from developing into a tropical storm or a hurricane."
'Don't let your guard down': 2-4 direct impacts to US expected
“We don’t want anyone to let their guard down even though we are now forecasting fewer storms in total," Porter said.
"We expect two to four more direct impacts to the United States this season. It only takes one powerful hurricane or slow-moving tropical storm to threaten lives and cause devastation. With such extremely warm waters in much of the Atlantic basin, and more conducive conditions for tropical development expected in the coming weeks, it’s important that everyone is prepared for the threat of more storms this year.
“The water is incredibly warm near many coastal cities in the United States. Those warm waters can act like jet fuel and help brewing storms explode in intensity. Rapid intensification near the coast is a major concern this fall."
2024 hurricane season could see tropical threats into November or even December
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is Sept. 10, and the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
Tropical threats could extend through November and possibly into December this year, due in part to extremely warm water temperatures, Porter said.
NOAA predicting 17-24 named storms for 2024 Atlantic hurricane season
In its Aug. 8 seasonal update, NOAA made slight changes to the original forecast released in May. Here's the latest forecast:
Named storms: 17-24
Hurricanes: 8-13
Major hurricanes: 4-7
Above normal season: 90%
Near normal season: 10%
This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Hurricane season prediction update from Accuweather improves
